Population Variability and Heat Bias Prediction in a Tropical Country, Nigeria, From 2006 to 2036
This research explores population variability and heat bias prediction in a tropical country, Nigeria from 2006 to 2036. Data were generated from the projections of the National Population Commission (NPC) using the population mathematical model for heat bias data. With national population growth rate of 2.67%, Nigeria recorded heat bias of 60C in 2016, 6.1oC in 2026 and 6.20C in 2036 as well as 0.10C decadal variation indicating that it has exceeded the 0.5-0.250C standard comfort threshold. The analytical results show that there is a positive association between population density and heat bias across the states of Nigeria with greater effects in states such as Lagos, Anambra, Imo, Abia, Akwa Ibom Ekiti, Rivers, Osun and Ebonyi due to the high concentration of people in their limited land mass. And more of the eastern states of Nigeria will have much effect of the heat bias due to their high population density. It shows that land mass does not have any association with heat bias and will likely be influenced by land modification and atmospheric characteristics. Heat wave could result to death of people; therefore, national planners should implement environmental, health and land-use management strategies with immediate action in order to make Nigeria a safe place to live.
- David, L. C. (2018, 22 February). Urban heat island effects depend on a city’s layout. Physical Review Letters.
- Anna, A. S., Darryn, W. W. and Ben, F. Z. (2018, 18 May). Reduced Urban Heat Island intensity under warmer conditions. Environmental Research Letters, 13, 6.
- Nwaerema, P. and Nwagbara, M. O. (2018). Spatial and Temporal Variability of Weekday Urban Heat Island in Port Harcourt and Environs. The International Journal of Science and Technoledge, 6, (3).
- Abbas, M, Jason, B and Tristan, J (2017). The urban heat island effect, its causes, and mitigation, with reference to the thermal properties of asphalt concrete. Journal of Environmental Management, 197.
- Reinhard, K., Alain, L., Joel, S., Carol, G., Randolph, W. D., and Carol, Rubin, H. (April, 2017). The Effect of the 1995 Heat Wave in Chicago on All-Cause and Cause-Specific Mortality. American Public Health Association.
- Nwaerema, P. and Weli, V.E. (2018). Urban Warming in Port Harcourt Metropolis and Environs. Journal of Geography, Environment and Earth Science International, 14(4).
- Gregory, D., Giovanni, F., Eddy, R., Wei, L., Goran, , Peter, L., Andy, W., Philippe, C., Julia, P., Stephen, S., Almut, A. and Alessandro, C. (2018). Biophysics and vegetation cover change: a process-based evaluation framework for confronting land surface models with satellite observations. Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 10, 1265–1279.
- United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs (UNDESA). (2018). State of the world population. New York, NY: Available from: https://www.un.org/development/desa/en/news/population/2018-revision-of-world-urbanization-prospects.html.
- National Population Commission [NPC]. (2017). Administrative Division. Nigeria: Author. Available from: https://www.citypopulation.de/php/nigeria-admin.php?adm1id=NGA033.
- Katharine, H., Scott, S., Laurence, K., Scott, G. (2009). Climate change, heat waves, and mortality projections for Chicago. Journal of Great Lakes Research, 36, 65–73, 2009.
- Shahmohamadi, P., Che-Ani, A. I., Ramly, A., Maulud, K. N. A. and Mohd-Nor, M. F. I. (2010). Reducing urban heat island effects: A systematic review to achieve energy consumption balance. International Journal of Physical Sciences Vol. 5 (6), pp. 626-63.
- Ojeh, V. N., Balogun, A. A. and Okhimamhe, A. A. (2016). Urban-Rural Temperature Differences in Lagos. Climate, 4(2), 29.
- World atlas (2018). Nigeria’s Information. Available from: https://www.worldatlas.com/webimage/countrys/africa/nigeria/nglatlog.htm.
- Etebong, P. C. (2018). Demography in Nigeria: Problems and Prospects. Biostat Biometrics Open Acc J, 5(1).
- World Maps (2018). Nigeria Latitude and Longitude Map. Available from: https://www.mapsofworld.com/lat_long/nigeria-lat-long.html
- Udo, I.U. and Dickson, B.F. (2017). The Nigerian Aqua-feed Industry, Potentials for Commercial Fed production. Nigerian Journal of Fisheries and Aquaculture, 5(2), 86-95.
- Haruna, , Yacob, M. and Adisa, A. (2015). The Household Cooking Sector in Nigeria: Environmental and Economic Sustainability Assessment. Resources, 4, 412-433.
- Edokpa, D. O. and Nwagbara, M. O. (2017). Atmospheric Stability Pattern over Port Harcourt, Nigeria. Journal of Atmospheric Pollution, 5(1), 9-17.
- Oyewole, J.A., Thompson, A.M., Akinpelu, J.A. &Jegede, O.O. (2014). Variation of Rainfall and Humidity in Nigeria. Journal of Environmental and Earth Science, 4(2), 29-37.
- Oke, T.R. Review of Urban Climatology 1973 – 1979 (1979). World Meteorological Organization\Technical Note: 169, World Meteorological Organization, Geneva, 100, 1979.
- Hoyt, D. (2006). Urban Heat Island and land use changes. Available from: htpp://www.warwickhughes.com/hoyt/uhi.htm
- Lemonsua, V., Viguiéb, M. and Daniela, V. M (2015). Vulnerability to heat waves: Impact of urban expansion scenarios on urban heat island and heat stress in Paris (France). Elsevier, 14(4), 586-605.
- National Bureau of Statistics [NBS]. (2012). Annual Abstract of Statistics. Nigeria.
Copyright (c) 2018 Peace Nwaerema, David Edokpa
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial 4.0 International License.
Author(s) retains full copyright of their article and grants non-exclusive publishing right to Advanced Journal of Social Science and its publisher “AIJR Publisher”. Author(s) can archive pre-print, post-print and published version/PDF to any open access, institutional repository, social media or personal website provided that Published source must be acknowledged with citation and link to publisher version.
Click here for more information on Copyright policy
Click here for more information on Licensing policy